Living in the giant shadow of our neighbours to the south, it is impossible not to have, at the very least, an inkling of how the twist and turns of this historic presidential campaign is unfolding. However, in this technological age, why rely on your inkling when you have proven experts available to assist at the ready?
See Nate Silver, who in 2012 correctly forecast the winner of each state, and correctly predicted the outcomes for the nine swing states.
In his article, published November 1, Silver indicates that “Trump remains an underdog,” but is no longer a long shot.
With this handy information in tow, I thought I’d have a look at the current presidential odds. Odds vary by site, but for the simplicity of argument, Hillary is generally -300 (bet $300 to win 100) and Trump is +200 (bet $100 to win $200) to win the presidential election.
Given Silver’s stats and the odds above, I think a small punt on Mr. Trump may be in the offing. Incidentally, online giant Paddy Power paid out on Hillary to win tickets a couple of weeks ago. Clearly, the PR gained far outweighs the risk of also paying out on a potential Trump win.
In any event, keep checking Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog as he updates his algorithm based on polling results.